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Communal Fund Investing - Time for you to Add Indian Funds

by AlmeidaDavid on May 11, 2018 Business 420 Views

Because the Asian economy has grown in proportions and importance, we have been slowly adding the single-country funds specialized in Asian countries to your international funds list. The first country we added was Japan, and much later China. What we required to be able to present you with the added threat of a fund focused on an individual country was a reasonably large and diversified capital market that offered a portfolio manager the chance to diversify the portfolio even within a single country. Since the Japanese and Chinese economies grew and new industries blossomed, we thought that test was met. We now genuinely believe that the Indian economy and capital markets also meet our test. With this problem, then, we are adding three India funds to your list: Matthews India, WisdomTree India Earnings (ETF) and PowerShares India (ETF). We may add a couple of other funds to the list over the next few issues.

Why India?... Frequently previously when we spoke about Asia and its rapid growth we cited the twin dynamos powering that growth, China and India. Coupling the two served its purpose, but we now believe the 2 are taking on separate identities. As we've been listening and reading on the span of days gone by four or five months, we came to the final outcome that there are differences in the paths that China and India will undoubtedly be taking over the months ahead. Both will soon be growing rapidly (or intend to) but one is concerned about too-rapid growth (China) while one other is aiming at much faster growth in the foreseeable future (India).

To sort things out, and to obtain a better feel for the Indian economy and the capital market, we spoke to Sharat Shroff, the portfolio manager of the Matthews India Fund. The initial point that Shroff made is that "a few of the days ahead for India (speaking of growth) might be better than what has been seen over the past two to three years." For a few historical perspective, Shroff noticed that India's growth rate acquired after the us government adopted a policy of setting up the economy in the first 90's. Ever since then, as more reforms were gradually introduced, growth has picked up further. By 1995, India's growth hit the high single-digits range and remained there (on average). Such growth has become taken as the benchmark.

Shroff emphasized that why is India's growth different from other emerging countries is that in large part it originates from domestic demand, not from exports or commodities. There is no large-scale overhaul that India must undergo, he remarked. What Shroff is driving at is that in the post-recession world China's trade surpluses and the U.S. deficit must shrink since they will be unsustainable. India faces no such issues.

The second point advanced by Shroff is that the private sector accounts for roughly 80% of India's growth. The significance of that's that in India we're referring to businesses which can be oriented toward profits and return on capital. This isn't always the case elsewhere in Asia. Because of those conditions, India supplies the investor a chance to invest in high quality companies with solid business models.

In terms of Matthews India, Shroff said that the fund does certainly not spend money on the large cap, world-renowned companies (the Indian blue chips). As Shroff put it, if you compare our portfolio with the benchmark, you'll realize that two-thirds of our portfolio is composed of small- and mid-cap stocks. We play the role of a little more forward-looking. What the fund is looking for are those (smaller) companies which are "participating in the country's growth and have the potential to become among the larger companies two, three or even five years from now."

The Indian market...We asked Mr. Shroff, what index you ought to watch to record the Indian market. He answered that the Sensex is the original index followed. But recently, the professional community pays more focus on the S&P CNX Nifty Index.

As for valuations, the Indian market, says Shroff, is selling at a price-earnings ratio of approximately 15-16 times and at about 3 x book value. This is slightly above historical average valuations. Also Shroff pointed out that the Indian market has traditionally been expensive in comparison to its emerging market peers. The premium has ranged from only 15% to as high as 45%. Right now he puts the premium at the reduced end of the range.

There's some justification for the premium, he added. The return on equity for Indian firms is in the 18-20% range, which, as he put it, "is fairly robust." Another reason refers back to the inner sourced elements of India's growth so you get less volatility than you do from a "commodity producer."

That's not to imply that the Indian market isn't volatile. "Even although the economy may be dancing to its own tune," Shroff warned, "when foreigners were pulling out money from all emerging markets in 2008, the Indian market went by way of a very severe correction. (In fact) in the last three to four years the Indian market has shown some correlation with the S&P 500." (We realize that recently to have been true of emerging markets as a whole.)

Shroff looked to the matter of volatility more than once. He was preaching to the converted. We are restricting our advice concerning the Indian funds to Venturesome investors only. Here is the same policy that individuals have now been following pertaining to the pure China funds. The policy is not written in stone, but the entire world economy would have to be functioning closer to normal before we would consider any relaxation.

Following the interview with Shroff, we were a lot more convinced that the single-country India funds belong within our fund list. Not merely is India growing rapidly, but we expect you'll start to see the emergence of more investment -- worthy companies as opportunities arise regarding ishares Asia Pacific Dividend. Taking into consideration the potential, you are able to appreciate why Asia and the emerging markets, in general, have become the center of the investment world's attention.

AlmeidaDavid

AlmeidaDavid

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